This week I had a couple of big wake-up calls about our industry’s relationship with China. I’m going to get a bit personal here so if you don’t want to read about reality and politics skip this blog this time, please.
So this week, I saw two media reports, which inspired me to write about what affects our industry as much or more than any other issue we deal with—US and international relations with China. So, hold on tight!
The first experience this week was to watch online a Donald Trump speech he gave on the campaign trail which should concern us all in the US most and around the world as well. Full disclaimer to say I am not a Donald Trump fan is an understatement on so many levels. But I will only focus primarily on one level. Trump on China.
As a marketer, Trump’s skills as a salesman and marketer are historically world class. As a speech communications major in college, I’ve studied all the great orators of the modern era–from Churchill, to Hitler to Kennedy and King and Trump is up there as one of the best. It’s actually very scary. So, from time to time I tune in to his rallies to hear his rap. The great spin doctors would be proud. He’s a master of propaganda.
So, during his rambling and generally troubling rant he made a statement which really jarred me professionally as much as what he says concerns me morally, ethically and politically. He said “When I’m elected we will revoke China’s most favored nation status on day one.” Dictators for a day can get a lot done in a day, I’m sure. That should put all of us in America and around the world on notice. So much of what Trump says is hyperbole and bull crap but between the lines much is to be taken seriously.,
Our industry dodged a huge bullet that other industries didn’t in 2018 and 2019 when we escaped the Trump trade war tariffs. We all know how tough it’s been for our industry since the demise of Toys “R” Us back in 2018. Just imagine if we’d gotten hit with 25% or more duty on toys? Imagine how much it would hurt us if most favored nation status, which could mean 40% to 75% tariffs on toys is imposed in 2025? To paraphrase Maya Angelou, “when they tell you what they are going to do, believe them”! I believe him. You should too!
You can believe whatever you want about politics, your taxes, how unexcited you might be about old Joe Biden. You might find it scary to imagine a transgender kid wanting to play sports with your kid (not a real issue by the way), want to own 50 guns, not allow a woman to control her body or any other real or imagined reason why one would support Trump, but if you value your business as an owner, executive, stockholder, or employee of our industry, this is your wake up call. A president, Donald Trump will be a disaster for our industry. That’s a fact.
In his last administration he filled his team and cabinet with a group of Muppets as it related to trade. (Meaning no disrespect to our furry friends.) Wilbur Ross was a totally out of touch guy with a background in oil and gas and nothing else. Larry Kudlow is a very smart guy but a sycophant who abandoned everything he believed in economically to go along with Trump’s whims. And worst of all was Peter Navarro his chief advisor on China who has an almost messianic animas against business with China. Trump will certainly bring these types of advisors and henchmen into his China policy. That is all on top of the speaker of the house Johnson’s equally harsh pronouncements about doing business with this most important manufacturing base for our industry.
Please, all, understand if Trump and the republican’s gain the White House and keep or gain more control of the US congress we are all in serious jeopardy as an industry.
Much as many would like to think we have options outside of China the reality is we do not. Eighty percent or more of all toys sold globally are made in China. While many would like to think places like Vietnam, India, Indonesia, and Mexico are options; they are not. Not at least for the next ten years or more. Also remember that we’ve spent more 30 years building a reliable supply chain and quality control system in China. Like it or not, our entire global industry depends on our relations with China. So, if you value your relationship to the toy industry, I urge all not to support Donald Trump or republicans for Senate and the Congress as support for them is support against our industry and out livelihoods.
My friends, I will tell you that your life will not change at all for the worse if Joe Biden is reelected as President in November! In fact, I would guess it has not changed for the worse in any way since he’s been president. However, it will change greatly for the worse if Donald Trump is elected President. That goes for or us in American and our friends around the world. That is a certainty.
This is the point where I usually say “well that’s my two cents.” hHwever it’s not two cents it’s our livelihood–and so much more. It’s all on the ballot and on the line in the US this year.
As I mentioned, the Trump rally speech was one of the media events I noted this past week. The other was on the TV show 60 Minutes last Sunday. They did two full segments on China, and I’d recommend all to find that episode with Leslie Stahl online and watch it. The Western world, like it or not, is in a symbiotic relationship with China. Our industry certainly is, and it’s time to decide. It’s not like Joe Biden and democrats like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren are big fans of China either, but they are at least rational in their approach. If there was a Mitt Romney or John McCain on the ballot, we’d all have a reasonable choice but with Trump on the ballot there is no choice. Make you voice heard.
Thank you for indulging this editorial diversion from my usual blog.
