Insider Information on the Economic Impact of Coronavirus


I was given a recap of a call that Goldman Sachs held with its top investors regarding the economic impact of the Coronavirus.  Here are my eight takeaways:

  1. Due to the Coronavirus disrupting Chinese manufacturing, they calculate that it will take up to six months for the supply chain to get back to normal.
  2. There is no organic problem with the financial system itself, so this is nothing like the underlying causes of the Great Recession in 2008.
  3. GDP in the United States will be down 2% this year. This is the lowest it has been in thirty years.
  4. The virus is primarily found in countries with colder climates (between 30 and 50 degrees latitude). As a result, it appears that it should slack off when the weather warms up.
  5. The stock market will recover in the second half of the year, but the S&P 500 will be down fifteen to 20%.Screen Shot 2020-03-17 at 2.02.09 PM

  • 50% of Americans and 70% of Germans will come down with Coronavirus. This is due to the ease with which it moves from one individual to another.
  • The virus is expected to peak over the course of the next eight weeks.
  • Finally, they make the point that the impact of the pandemic is primarily psychological when it comes to the economy. Viruses have always been with us, so this is nothing new.


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