This has been a year of nail-biting and uncertainty to be sure. However, news comes this morning from Circana, suggesting that consumers are buying. Whether they are stocking up in advance of price increases or shrugging off the coming impact of tariffs is unknown.
However the data company says that following sales declines in 2023 and a relatively flat performance in 2024, the U.S. toy industry is back to growth in 2025. In the first half of the year, dollar sales increased by 6%, units sold were up 3%, and average selling price (ASP) grew by 3%, versus the same period in 2024, according to Circana, LLC. This increase in ASP is notable since it has been flat for three consecutive years.
According to Circana’s Retail Tracking Service, seven of the 11 supercategories posted dollar growth including games and puzzles (+39%), and explorative toys (+19%), which were driven by Pokémon and NFL trading cards, respectively. Other supercategory growth areas included youth electronics (+9%), action figures (+8%), building sets (+7%), arts and crafts (+4%), and vehicles (+2%).
Licensed toys, which make up more than one-third (37%) of toys sold in the U.S., grew by nearly four share points in the first half, compared to 2024, with sales increasing 18%. Every top growth property so far this year is connected to licensing, content, or movie releases in some form. Video game properties were dominant among the top 10 gainers including Pokémon, Final Fantasy, and Minecraft, all movie titles. Other movie licenses contributing to the growth were Formula 1, Lilo & Stitch, and Sonic the Hedgehog.
Looking at demographics, adults continue to drive market growth in toys, with sales increasing by 18% for recipients aged 18 and older. The growth in the adult market was nearly split between males and females. On the other hand, the growth in ages 9-11, up +9%, and 12-17, up +6%, was driven by males. It is also worth noting that toy sales for 3-5-year-olds reversed direction compared to 2024 and grew in the first half of 2025.
“The toy industry is showing strength during this period as consumers are holding their breath and waiting for higher prices to kick in,” said Juli Lennett, vice president and toy industry advisor at Circana. “This resilience is especially important as we set our sights on the holiday season and what categories are critical for the consumer to bring joy to their loved ones.”
