John Baulch The Friday Blog: Starting Over

After a gentle couple of days’ re-introduction to the world of work at the end of last week, normal service has been resumed this week, as the toy community returns to work en masse after the festive period. To give everyone a little extra lift going into Toy Fair Season, there has been some encouraging news from Circana, which I’m sure you will know all about if you subscribe to their data reports.

The topline – and very welcome – news is that the widely anticipated late festive sales surge did indeed materialize here in the UK. According to Circana, Week 52 toy sales (including the three days before Christmas) grew by a whopping +51%, helping the overall December number to hit +5%, making it the best performing month of the year. Unfortunately, the slow sales in January, October and November still meant that as a whole, 2024 was down -3.7% in value – but I think we all saw that coming. Thank goodness the Week 52 figures mitigated the decline significantly.

Of course, within those over-arching numbers, there will be winners and losers – and given the year we had, I suspect some of the swings might be quite brutal. Nevertheless, I am going to stick with the perspective that it could have been a whole lot worse, were it not for the big finish that is being reported. Christmas 2024 certainly went down to the wire, and it tested the nerves and resolve of every supplier and retailer, but at least it seems to have come good in the end. All things considered I’m seeing the glass as half-full rather than half-empty.

So now, it’s onwards and upwards towards Toy Fair Season. Whatever happened last year is in the past. We can only look forward towards next Christmas, as the selection process starts all over again. Indeed, some people have already kicked the year off with a trip to Hong Kong. I’ve had interesting (and honest) feedback from some of those who have made the trip, and the general consensus is broadly as I expected: the word ‘quiet’ has made an appearance in every message I have received. Nevertheless, most say they are happy that they made the trip. Some have suggested that meetings have been longer and more productive, as the old ‘speed dating’ approach is no longer necessary with fewer people around. Some have unearthed a few gems which someone else may have beaten them to in the past, while others have pointed out that they managed to secure good time with certain major accounts which – and I quote – “may have given us scant time elsewhere.” Overall, the ‘quality not quantity’ mantra is very much the order of the day, along with the ‘horses for courses’ argument. Hong Kong is not for everybody, but for those working closely with the Asian market or seeking out FOB lines to boost margin balance, it remains a viable option.

Read the rest here.

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