It may be sunny outside, but Christmas is most definitely coming – we know that because Christmas Top 10 toy lists are already starting to appear in the wild. First out of the blocks this year was John Lewis, a retailer which in many respects might be described an ‘an outlier’ in the toy retail arena. Therefore, it was perhaps no great surprise that its predictions are likely to be a little different to many of the lists which will follow.
As ever, there is a huge question mark over whether August Bank Holiday is too early to unveil a Christmas list – although that said, my local Morrisons has gone live with a fixture featuring festive biscuits and cakes this week, so Christmas is clearly on many retail radars. There is arguably some kudos to being the first toy list to hit the headlines, although a number of the lines featured on the John Lewis list won’t even be available until October, so it will be difficult to accurately evaluate consumer response to the announcement. But what is certain is that the starting gun has been fired, and we’re on our way.
There are two trade shows next week, which also presumably have their sights set on encouraging retailers to place their final festive orders. Taking place simultaneously for the first time, and with only seven miles between the two venues, it is certainly feasible for some retailers to visit both Autumn Fair and the INDX Toy & Gift Show in a single day – although an overnight stay will make the trip less frantic for those with further to travel.
Second season shows are a different breed. Events in January and February see a host of brand-new ranges being showcased, retailers with clean slates and fresh budgets to allocate, and they take place during the majors’ autumn winter selection period – so they’re viewed as important shows for most suppliers and retailers (even if few physical orders are actually written at Q1 shows anymore). By September, major accounts have long since firmed up selections, there are a handful of new additions to ranges (but certainly not wholesale changes) and retailers’ available budgets are heavily influenced by sales over the summer and the current level of stock being held. On the plus side, retailers visiting second season shows are generally heading there to place orders, rather than just looking at ranges that won’t be launched for another six months. In a nutshell, autumn events can very much go either way, based on how trading has been going, and the level of confidence retailers have for the coming months.
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