John Baulch The Friday Blog: The Calm Before the Storm

After writing and talking about them for the past few months, the Toymaster May Show and Las Vegas Licensing Expo are finally almost upon us. In fact, the month of May has somehow turned into the new January as far as shows are concerned. In addition to our trips to Harrogate and Vegas, the Toy World team is also going to be present at Distoy and ComicCon in London and the UK Games Expo in Birmingham over the next fortnight. Obviously we have had to adopt the ‘divide and conquer’ strategy, as several of these shows overlap – but someone will be present at each event. If you want to see us at any of these venues, you can drop any one of us a line and we’ll co-ordinate with whoever is flying the flag at that particular event.

So, this week has very much been the calm before the storm, making sure our June issue is sent to press before we pack our bags and head off to our respective destinations next week. Thanks to all of those companies who have pulled out all the stops to get material over to us in time – I know that the lead-up to any show is always frantic, so we appreciate you squeezing us into your schedules.

While the weather has shown tentative signs of improving, there is still no overwhelming consensus as to whether a burst of sun is good or bad for retail trade. There’s no doubt it brings people out, but whether they head to their local High Street or Retail Park, or just their local park, is a matter of opinion. While I sat in a beautiful, packed park in South London last Saturday in gorgeous weather, I had a retailer sending me pictures of his quiet shopping centre – and as I looked around me, I could see why that might be the case, especially as it was the first sunny Saturday of the year.

We’ve also had our first significant casualty of the year here in the UK, with games company Ginger Fox going into administration, while over in the US Kidkraft has filed for a prepackaged Chapter 11 bankruptcy, with the intention of selling its assets to a competitor. All of this makes what happens in Harrogate next week even more important – this is the perfect opportunity to kickstart the year and lift the toy community’s mood. And with container prices rising rapidly once more – I am reliably informed that they’ve hit $8000 in recent weeks and some insiders are suggesting that figure could even rise as high as $10,000 next month – and shipping capacity increasingly challenged, there is a possibility that suppliers could be forced to look again at their pricing in the coming weeks. If there was a show about to take place where suppliers were not only working off their current price lists, but also offering great deals and incentives to place orders, I know where I would be going next week, regardless of how trade is looking right at this very moment.

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