There are still four critical months in what is turning out to be longer than a 365 day year (or a leap year for that matter). A lot can happen in four months, so here are some factors to consider.
The Bah Humbug Factor
Trump v. Biden is, to say the least, a polarized election. Whichever side loses may not be in the mood for a lot of celebrating. That could suppress demand for anything from Christmas ornaments to, yes, toys.
The Cure
A tested and proven COVID-19 vaccination would go a long way towards lifting spirits and quarantines.
The Headache
Dr. Fauci said yesterday that he thinks it’s going to be a challenging winter, and there is a good chance that COVID will be with us through the end of the year. If that is the case, it will be a particularly difficult year for bricks and mortar retailers as consumers continue to stay close to home.
Video Game Consoles
I have done an analysis of every year going back to 1980. Virtually every year, there is a new video game console release, the toy industry has had a flat or negative year. Microsoft has announced that its latest iteration of Xbox will release in early November. Nintendo is producing 25 million units of its always scarce Switch. Sony has announced it will release the newest version of its PlayStation but has not yet announced a date. That does not bode well as families make the decision to invest in a new console ($499 for the new Xbox) and the game
software to feed it.
We still have a long way to go this year. So far so good but watch out for these variables. They could make a difference.
