After two years of flat performance, the U.S. toy industry is officially back in growth mode. According to new data from Circana, LLC, toy sales from January through September 2025 rose 7% in dollars compared to the same period last year. The rebound is powered by a combination of pricing strength—average selling price (ASP) increased 4%—and improving consumer demand, with unit sales rising 3%.
This mid-year surge signals renewed momentum entering the holiday season, though economic pressures and shifting consumer habits may still complicate Q4 outcomes.
Collectibles and Licensing Lead the Market’s Comeback
Two powerhouse segments—collectible toys (+33%) and licensed toys (+14%)—are responsible for much of the industry’s year-to-date gains.
Collectibles: A Cultural Engine
The collectibles boom is being driven by:
- Strategic trading card games
- Sports trading cards
- Action figure collectibles
Trading card enthusiasm remains high across both sports and entertainment, continuing a multiyear growth cycle fueled by nostalgia, investment culture, and social sharing.
Licensing: Storytelling Still Sells
Key licensing themes fueling growth include:
- Sports
- Fantasy worlds (witches, wizards)
- Animals
- Movies and theatrical releases
- Video game franchises
Across demographics, consumers continue to gravitate toward products tied to recognizable stories, characters, and cultural icons.
Category Winners and Losers Through Q3
Of the 11 major toy supercategories Circana tracks:
- 7 posted dollar growth
- 6 showed corresponding unit growth
Top-Growing Categories
- Games/Puzzles
Fastest-growing category, with Pokémon serving as the primary engine. - Explorative & Other Toys
Sustained by strong sales of sports trading cards. - Building Sets
Powered by Formula 1-themed products, demonstrating the rising pop-culture influence of motorsports.
Categories Facing Declines
- Outdoor & Sports Toys
- Plush
- Dolls
These declines reflect shifting purchasing priorities, post-pandemic normalization, and competitive pressure from faster-moving entertainment trends.
Top-Selling New Toys in September 2025
As a preview of potential holiday hits, Circana highlights the top-selling new toys by supercategory for September:
| Supercategory | Top Item | Manufacturer |
|---|---|---|
| Games/Puzzles | Pokémon Mega Evolution Pack Blister Asst | Pokémon |
| Building Sets | Super Mario Brothers Game Boy | The LEGO Group |
| Explorative & Other Toys | Donruss NBA 2024–2025 Optic Basketball Trading Card Mega Box | Panini |
| Dolls | Monster High Corpse Bride Tim Burton’s Emily Skullector Doll | Mattel |
| Action Figures | X-Men 97 Figure 6″ Asst | Hasbro |
| Youth Electronics | Pets Alive Polly The Surprise Magic Bird | Zuru |
| Plush | Aphmau Mee Meows Elemental Classic Mystery Plush 11″ Asst | Bonkers Toys |
| Infant/Toddler/Preschool | Gabby’s Dollhouse The Movie Meow Mazing Interactive | Spin Master |
| Vehicles | Monster Jam Smash and Bash Grave Digger 1:64 Asst | Spin Master |
| Arts & Crafts | Sticki Rolls Aphmau Band Capsule Asst | Sky Castle Toys |
| Outdoor & Sports | 3-in-1 Mow and Grow Tractor | VTech |
These items illustrate the powerful effect of licensing, unboxing play patterns, and social-friendly brands on today’s marketplace.
Holiday 2025 Outlook: Strong Intentions, Complex Trade-Offs
Circana’s newly released Holiday Purchase Intentions study indicates a nuanced environment for Q4 retail.
Holiday Spending Expectations
- Total holiday spend expected to range from –1% to +2% vs. last year.
- Unit sales may decline up to 2.5%, reflecting cautious purchasing behavior despite dollar resilience.
Key Consumer Insights
Juli Lennett, Circana vice president and toy industry advisor, notes several pivotal shifts:
1. Earlier Shopping Is the New Normal
Fewer consumers plan to wait until December, meaning brands and retailers must secure conversions earlier in Q4.
2. Price Pressure Is Top of Mind
Over 80% of shoppers expect higher prices, creating opportunities for:
- Value messaging
- Promotional strategies
- Inventory guarantees (“Buy early before it’s gone”)
3. Consumers Expect to Spend More—but on Fewer Items
Though shoppers anticipate spending 3% more, 31% plan to buy fewer gifts, prioritizing:
- Meaningful purchases
- Affordable indulgences
- Practical items
4. Cultural Forces Are Influencing Buyer Psychology
Economic headlines, social media trends, and changing values—especially around nostalgia and wellness—are shaping holiday decision-making.
Industry Resilience and the Role of Emotion
According to Lennett:
“The U.S. consumer, and their willingness to absorb tariffs, will be the key factor shaping Q4 performance. The toy industry has a unique advantage and tends to be resilient in turbulent times, as toys serve as emotional anchors for families. The industry also benefits from trends like adult self-gifting, nostalgia, and digital wellness.”
These factors may help stabilize the toy sector even if macroeconomic pressures intensify.
About Circana
Circana is a leading provider of technology, AI, and data for consumer packaged goods and durable goods companies. With six decades of domain expertise and its Liquid Data® platform, Circana helps brands and retailers analyze market share, understand the consumer behaviors behind it, and make informed decisions to accelerate growth.
This article was developed using data and insights sourced from a press release issued by Circana, LLC, synthesizing their latest industry findings into a broader analysis of U.S. toy market trends.
