Halloween continues to emerge as a strong retail season. The National Retail Federation (NRF) has put out its annual predictions for sales, and while they are projecting spending down about 5 percent over last year, they project that the average consumer will spend just over $103 on festivities.
Not surprisingly, the bulk of consumption will be among people 18-34—the ever-present kidults—who continue to flex their economic muscles around this holiday. Candy and decorations top the lists, and a drive around any neighborhood will reveal that even before the leaves have begun to change, there are decorations in windows and on lawns. Halloween Trees are also a thing.
You’ll also pay about 15 percent more for your pumpkins this year, due to increased labor costs, from several sources. Should you be oh-so-trendy, you may also pay a premium for white pumpkins, which seem to be a trend.
This is not a typically robust season for traditional toys, though according to some retailers we’ve talked to, it’s been a very strong season for Disney’s The Nightmare Before Christmas. The movie was only a modest box office hit when it debuted in 1993, but it has since become a widely loved classic, inspiring a consistently strong merchandising program.
As for costumes, the youngest kids this year are continuing to spin out their Spider-Man fantasies as well as pirates, princesses, and the usual assortment of characters from Paw Patrol to Bluey and Peppa Pig. We’re curious to see if the trend towards witches continues this year, particularly given the success of Agatha All Along, from Disney. The NRF estimates about $1.3 billion will be spend in the U.S. on kids’ costumes.
Adults will spend even more with projected adult costume sales topping $1.8 billion. Witches, vampires, sexy…whatevers, and Batman will be haunting celebrations this year.
There is one trend in the toy biz that we think is worth watching. Given the success of Advent calendars in the toy industry—great character platforms, terrific margins, multiple family purchases—look for similar products for Halloween. It’s doubtful that toymakers will try to leverage the liturgical season of Pentecost or Allhallowstide (in the Anglican tradition) as they did with Advent, so we’re going to consider these Countdown Calendars. Whatever you call them, it seems like a fun way to build excitement for kids, engagement with franchises and fun.
