It will take anywhere from one to two years for the world’s toy industries to begin feeling the full impact of what the baby products industry is undergoing now. The smart thing to do will be to keep an eye on births and use population figures as an input in calculating inventories.
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In June of 2020, I wrote an article titled, “One Half Million Fewer Births Due to Coronavirus; The Coming Impact on the Toy Industry.” I based that headline around a quote from Washington Post writer Christopher Ingraham:
“In a new report, economists writing for the Brookings Institution estimate that the United States could see “on the order of 300,000 to 500,000 fewer births next year” as a result of the economic recession triggered by the novel coronavirus.”
In my article, I noted a decline in births during the 1918 Flu Epidemic as one indicator. I also pointed out that an aversion to going to the hospital during the Coronavirus epidemic plus economic uncertainty would lead people to forgo having babies. That prediction is coming true, as we can see from this January 29, 2021, MarketWatch article by Tonya Garcia, “Declining U.S. birth rate poses threat to diaper business.”
A decline in births is, of course, bad news for those who manufacture toys and other children’s products. It’s not, however, just the U.S. that is seeing a decline in births. Note these headlines:
“Lockdown bambino bust: 9 months on, Italian births fall 22 percent” – Reuters, Feb. 5, 2021
“France is seeing a baby bust nine months after its first covid lockdown “- Washington Post, Feb. 11, 2021
“Instead of a desperately needed baby boom, China gets a COVID-19 baby bust” – SupChina, Feb. 9, 2021
“Russia: Population shrinks for first time in 15 years” – Aljazeera, Jan. 29, 2021
It will take anywhere from one to two years for the world’s toy industries to begin feeling the full impact of what the baby products industry is undergoing now. The smart thing to do will be to keep an eye on births and use population figures as an input in calculating inventories.
