Population for the Top 20 Countries from 1820-2100; Some Thoughts


Wawamu Stats has provided a fascinating look at population figures for the world's twenty most populous cities dating back to 1810 and projecting through 2100. Here are some of the things that struck me:

1810 – The U.S. was number 17 in population. The United Kingdom was number 10 with roughly twice the population.

1812 – When France made its ill-fated invasion of Russia, the two countries were almost the same size. I had always assumed that Russia was a much bigger country at that time in terms of population.

1847 – The United States passed the United Kingdom in population, seventy-one years after declaring independence in 1776.

1884 – The United States became the third largest country in the world.

1914 – 1920 – The populations of Germany and France decreased in size due to the losses in World War I.

1947 – India had seven times the population of the United Kingdom when it achieved its independence.

1960 – 2019 – India's population quadrupled, Pakistan's quintupled and Brazil's tripled in 60 years.

2025 – India passes China in population.

2037 -  2100 – China begins to decline in population.

2047 – Nigeria passes the United States to have the third largest population in the world.

Overall, I was surprised by the population figures for the African countries. The toy industry, with the exception of South Africa, largely ignores Africa and its consumer markets. As a matter of fact, I have not seen anything in the way of consumer research.

Is your company doing business in Africa? If so, please share your knowledge with us.


One thought

  1. I agree with you Richard. Toys and Licensing industries have long overlooked Africa – except South Africa – which offers good prospects. Yet, businesses should be aware that while the continent is projected to be the fastest growing region in terms of children population over the coming years, in comparison to developed markets, disposable income and spend per child is forecast to remain low. So, pricing strategies should be very carefully thought through.
    This is the area that I investigated in my “Global Child Population Growing, but there’s a Twist” article back in 2012:
    • A combination of growing spend per child in developed markets, and rising disposable incomes in emerging markets, means that there is power in pricing.
    • Toy manufacturers ultimately worry that the declining numbers of children in core markets will constrain their growth prospects. Yet, where fewer toys are bought, their value tends to be higher.
    • One consequence of the overall downturn in birth rates in so many countries has been smaller household sizes and higher consumer expenditure per child, which in turn has led to more discretionary spending on non-essential products, especially toys & games. Since disposable income is a more important indicator for toys & games sales than demographics, the industry can still find growth through innovation, up-trading and pricing.
    • And if that is not enough to allay concerns, it should be noted that in those emerging markets where demographic indicators are in relatively good shape, so too is the underlying trajectory of disposable incomes.

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